"...That
the advent of highly integrated commodity and financial
markets has been accompanied by trade tensions and
problems of financial instability should not come as a
surprise, ...... The surprise is that these problems are
not even more severe today, given that the extent of
commodity and financial market integration is so much
greater.
"
One possibility in accounting (for this surprise) is the
stabilizing role of the institutions built in the
interim. At the national level this means social and
financial safety nets. At the international level it
means the WTO, the IMF, the Basle Committee of Banking
Supervisors. These institutions may be far from perfect,
but they are better than nothing, judging from the
historical correlation between the level of integration
on one hand and the level of trade conflict and
financial instability on the other."